Obama Increase his lead in Polls
Well, you guys must have read or watched the news that Obama's lead over McCain has increased. His lead shrank last week, and now it expanded again. Now, if there is this level of fluidity in the polls, I guess two weeks is a LONG LONG time. I am especially worried about the number of undecided voters. There are about 7% undecided voters. Now, I don't know how much of the "Bradley Effect" will have on this presidential elections, but if Obama's lead could shrink by 6% last week, and then gain this week, there is no reason to doubt that in the days ahead of the election, Obama could see his gains shrink again.
From the Gallup Website, and The Below Image, Here are my findings.
Among the registered voters (2,774 sample), 52% said that they were going to vote for Obama, and 41% said they would vote for McCain. 4% of them are undecided, and if we take Bradley effect into account, McCain's total would be 45% versus Obama's 52%, this gives Obama a comfortable edge among Registered Voters even if Bradley Effect takes into affect. Based on Likely Voters (people who just said their voting intentions are), Obama maintained the same percentage points as registered voters, but McCain has a 2% increase to 43% voters. Now, this I think is the most fluid voter base. Obama has brought in a lot of excitement among new and young voters, and if they VOTE, Obama would hold a comfortable edge over again. This is also where Bradley effect for me seems more strong, or if Obama does some major slip up or some unforeseen event happens that gives McCain Edge - this group could give McCain the edge that he needs to win the election. Things get more clearer if you look at Traditional Likely Voters. Here Obama's Edge shrinked to 50%, while McCain further edged up to 45%, leaving only a 5% difference, with 4% undecided voters. Now, with Bradley effect, it would be almost a tie.
Moral of the story? Obama maybe ahead in the polls, but he AND his supporters shouldn't get too confident. The sight of McCain losing could bring Republicans in drove, and overconfident Democrats could be caught sleeping. Regardless of what polls say, Obama supporters and Democrats need to come out in full numbers, including the youth to get him elected president.
For North Carolina Poll Analysis, Please Checkout Comments From Left Field.
At AMERICAblog, Joe Sudbay talks about Obama's performance in WSJ polls, and how high chances are of Palin ending up in Presidents' chair if McCain was to be elected.
You guys can check the Gallup poll results at this address: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111274/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Edges-Higher.aspx
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